![]() According to the results, the accuracy of FOSM is adequate for most serviceability limit state (SLS) purposes if the clay is normally consolidated. The aim is to assess the accuracy and limitations of FOSM when applied to estimate the mean, the standard deviation, or the upper 95th percentile of the settlement. Hence, this paper applies two well-known reliability methods, first-order second-moment method (FOSM) and Monte Carlo simulation, to various theoretical consolidation scenarios and three case studies of test embankments founded on normally consolidated (NC) or overconsolidated (OC) clay subsoil. These uncertainties can be considered systematically by means of reliability analysis where the probability distribution of consolidation settlement is evaluated. The settlement of ground-supported transportation infrastructures may vary greatly depending on the uncertainties related to compressibility properties and overconsolidation of clay.
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